Meso Outlook

Storm Prediction Center
  1. MD 0779 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MT...SOUTHERN ND...AND NORTHERN SD
    MD 0779 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0779
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0456 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020
    
    Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern MT...southern ND...and
    northern SD
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 
    
    Valid 020956Z - 021230Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Storms may pose an isolated threat for large hail and
    perhaps strong/gusty winds early this morning. Watch issuance is
    unlikely at this time.
    
    DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough will continue to progress
    eastward across the northern Plains and AB/SK over the next few
    hours. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature is beginning to
    overspread a reservoir of mainly elevated instability extending from
    southeastern MT into the Dakotas. Steep mid-level lapse rates
    present on the 00Z observed soundings from BIS and UNR likely remain
    across much of the Dakotas early this morning. MUCAPE rapidly
    increases with southward extent across SD, but developing convection
    should tend to stay closer to the elevated instability gradient from
    far southeastern MT and extending eastward along/near the ND/SD
    border. Strong effective bulk shear exists across this region owing
    to a 45-55 kt southwesterly mid-level jet attendant to the shortwave
    trough. Any storms that can persist in this environment should
    acquire supercellular characteristics given the strong shear, with
    an associated large hail threat. The damaging wind threat may remain
    more limited owing to a fairly stable boundary layer to the north of
    a weak front draped east/west across SD, but strong/gusty winds
    cannot be ruled out. Current expectations are for overall storm
    coverage to remain rather isolated. Accordingly, watch issuance will
    probably not be needed.
    
    ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/02/2020
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...
    
    LAT...LON   45120405 45380475 46180467 46600401 46860305 46750137
                46560017 46129968 45419975 45060044 45030195 45120405 
    
    
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