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  1. MD 1874 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
    MD 1874 Image
    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1874
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0439 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021
    
    Areas affected...Long Island and southern New England
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 
    
    Valid 162139Z - 162345Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
    
    SUMMARY...An isolated risk for damaging gusts may continue into the
    early evening across Long Island and southern New England.
    
    DISCUSSION...A broken squall line is oriented north-south from the
    NY/MA/CT border into the greater NYC area as of 535pm EDT.  The
    airmass ahead of the squall line over southern New England is
    marginally unstable with temperatures in the lower 70s, and
    dewpoints ranging from near 60 deg F in central MA to the mid 60s
    near the coast.  The strength of the wind profile supports storm
    organization but the deep-shear vector is largely parallel to the
    squall line and this may limit the overall potential for more
    intense downdrafts from developing.  Nonetheless, a conditional risk
    for an isolated pocket or two of damaging gusts may continue as the
    squall line moves across Long Island and southern New England over
    the next couple of hours.  While it seems unlikely a severe
    thunderstorm watch will be needed, convective trends will continue
    to be monitored.
    
    ..Smith/Guyer.. 10/16/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
    
    LAT...LON   40647375 41677317 42697278 43197165 42927077 42427080
                41017187 40557331 40647375 
    
    
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