Meso Outlook

1. SPC MD 1874

   MD 1874 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
   

   
   Mesoscale Discussion 1874
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0439 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021
   
   Areas affected...Long Island and southern New England
   
   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 
   
   Valid 162139Z - 162345Z
   
   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
   
   SUMMARY...An isolated risk for damaging gusts may continue into the
   early evening across Long Island and southern New England.
   
   DISCUSSION...A broken squall line is oriented north-south from the
   NY/MA/CT border into the greater NYC area as of 535pm EDT.  The
   airmass ahead of the squall line over southern New England is
   marginally unstable with temperatures in the lower 70s, and
   dewpoints ranging from near 60 deg F in central MA to the mid 60s
   near the coast.  The strength of the wind profile supports storm
   organization but the deep-shear vector is largely parallel to the
   squall line and this may limit the overall potential for more
   intense downdrafts from developing.  Nonetheless, a conditional risk
   for an isolated pocket or two of damaging gusts may continue as the
   squall line moves across Long Island and southern New England over
   the next couple of hours.  While it seems unlikely a severe
   thunderstorm watch will be needed, convective trends will continue
   to be monitored.
   
   ..Smith/Guyer.. 10/16/2021
   
   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
   
   LAT...LON   40647375 41677317 42697278 43197165 42927077 42427080
               41017187 40557331 40647375 
   
   

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