Spc outlook

1. SPC Oct 16, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

   SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
   

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0233 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021
   
   Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VERMONT
   SOUTHWARD INTO NEW JERSEY AND VICINITY...
   
   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe storms remain possible across parts of the Northeast
   States through early evening.
   
   ...Northeast and Mid Atlantic...
   A line of storms continues to move rapidly east across VT, curling
   southwestward into southern NY and eastern PA. Northern parts of the
   line have shown relative strength, with MLCAPE to 500 J/kg, cooler
   temperatures aloft and stronger/backed 850 mb winds to 50 kt. A risk
   of damaging gusts or a QLCS tornado may persist for a few more hours
   as the low-topped convective line traverses the instability plume,
   and before the boundary layer begins to cool. 
   
   For more information see mesoscale discussion 1873.
   
   ..Jewell.. 10/16/2021
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021/
   
   ...Northeast...
   A high-shear/low-CAPE convective episode is expected to peak later
   this afternoon. A swath of frontal precip, predominately stratiform 
   with embedded higher-reflectivity cores and sporadic lightning
   flashes, is ongoing from northern NY southwest through central PA.
   Some breaks in downstream cloud coverage should result in somewhat
   more robust heating across the eastern PA/NJ area south. However,
   buoyancy in this regime will remain meager owing to weak mid-level
   lapse rates. Farther north, where deep-layer ascent will be
   stronger, greater boundary-layer heating will likely be confined to
   a corridor along the Upper Hudson to Champlain Valleys. This latter
   region should coincide with amplification of 850-700 mb wind field
   this afternoon, where enlarged low-level hodographs will foster an
   embedded tornado risk for a brief period later this afternoon.
   Otherwise, a thin, low-topped QLCS is expected to evolve
   east-northeastward offering a threat for scattered damaging winds
   from strong to locally severe gusts. These threats should wane after
   dusk as convection spreads across New England.
   
   

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