Spc outlook
Storm Prediction Center

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SPC Mar 1, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected after sunrise. ...Gulf States... Mid-level height falls will strengthen across the southern Plains during the latter half of the period ahead of a notable short-wave trough that should advance into OK/north TX during the overnight hours. As a result, meaningful large-scale ascent will remain focused well north of the surface front which should surge of the TX Coast early in the period. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will remain conducive for elevated convection ahead of the short wave. There is some concern that a few robust updrafts may be ongoing at the start of the period across south-central TX, in closer proximity to a bit more buoyancy; however, any hail production should remain mostly sub-severe. Downstream, weak low-level convergence along the southward-advancing front will not be particularly advantageous for more than isolated lightning flashes within the strongest convection. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2021
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SPC Mar 1, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 0700Z Day 2 OutlookDay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the southern Plains will pivot eastward toward the southern Appalachians by Wednesday morning. Moderate deep layer southwesterly flow will maintain a warm advection regime across the central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. At the surface, a weak low is expected to develop east/northeast across the northern Gulf, just offshore from southeast LA and southern MS/AL before tracking across northern FL late in the period. A warm front will likely remain offshore, perhaps hugging coastal portions of the FL Panhandle, while a cold front sweeps east/southeast into across the western and central Gulf. Thunderstorms are expected near and north of the warm front, but this activity should largely remain elevated. Instability will be weak near the FL Panhandle and surface-based storm development appears unlikely, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/01/2021
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