Spc outlook

Storm Prediction Center
SPC Convective Outlooks
  1. SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0233 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021
    
    Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
    
    ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VERMONT
    SOUTHWARD INTO NEW JERSEY AND VICINITY...
    
    ...SUMMARY...
    A few severe storms remain possible across parts of the Northeast
    States through early evening.
    
    ...Northeast and Mid Atlantic...
    A line of storms continues to move rapidly east across VT, curling
    southwestward into southern NY and eastern PA. Northern parts of the
    line have shown relative strength, with MLCAPE to 500 J/kg, cooler
    temperatures aloft and stronger/backed 850 mb winds to 50 kt. A risk
    of damaging gusts or a QLCS tornado may persist for a few more hours
    as the low-topped convective line traverses the instability plume,
    and before the boundary layer begins to cool. 
    
    For more information see mesoscale discussion 1873.
    
    ..Jewell.. 10/16/2021
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021/
    
    ...Northeast...
    A high-shear/low-CAPE convective episode is expected to peak later
    this afternoon. A swath of frontal precip, predominately stratiform 
    with embedded higher-reflectivity cores and sporadic lightning
    flashes, is ongoing from northern NY southwest through central PA.
    Some breaks in downstream cloud coverage should result in somewhat
    more robust heating across the eastern PA/NJ area south. However,
    buoyancy in this regime will remain meager owing to weak mid-level
    lapse rates. Farther north, where deep-layer ascent will be
    stronger, greater boundary-layer heating will likely be confined to
    a corridor along the Upper Hudson to Champlain Valleys. This latter
    region should coincide with amplification of 850-700 mb wind field
    this afternoon, where enlarged low-level hodographs will foster an
    embedded tornado risk for a brief period later this afternoon.
    Otherwise, a thin, low-topped QLCS is expected to evolve
    east-northeastward offering a threat for scattered damaging winds
    from strong to locally severe gusts. These threats should wane after
    dusk as convection spreads across New England.
    
    
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