Spc outlook

1. SPC Mar 1, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

   SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
   

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1102 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
   
   Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
   
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected after sunrise.
   
   ...Gulf States...
   
   Mid-level height falls will strengthen across the southern Plains
   during the latter half of the period ahead of a notable short-wave
   trough that should advance into OK/north TX during the overnight
   hours. As a result, meaningful large-scale ascent will remain
   focused well north of the surface front which should surge of the TX
   Coast early in the period. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
   will remain conducive for elevated convection ahead of the short
   wave. There is some concern that a few robust updrafts may be
   ongoing at the start of the period across south-central TX, in
   closer proximity to a bit more buoyancy; however, any hail
   production should remain mostly sub-severe. Downstream, weak
   low-level convergence along the southward-advancing front will not
   be particularly advantageous for more than isolated lightning
   flashes within the strongest convection.
   
   ..Darrow.. 03/01/2021
   
   

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2. SPC Mar 1, 2021 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

   SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
   

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
   
   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
   
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.
   
   ...Synopsis...
   
   A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the southern Plains will
   pivot eastward toward the southern Appalachians by Wednesday
   morning. Moderate deep layer southwesterly flow will maintain a warm
   advection regime across the central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. At
   the surface, a weak low is expected to develop east/northeast across
   the northern Gulf, just offshore from southeast LA and southern
   MS/AL before tracking across northern FL late in the period. A warm
   front will likely remain offshore, perhaps hugging coastal portions
   of the FL Panhandle, while a cold front sweeps east/southeast into
   across the western and central Gulf. Thunderstorms are expected near
   and north of the warm front, but this activity should largely remain
   elevated. Instability will be weak near the FL Panhandle and
   surface-based storm development appears unlikely, precluding severe
   probabilities at this time.
   
   ..Leitman.. 03/01/2021
   
   

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