Spc outlook

Storm Prediction Center
SPC Convective Outlooks
  1. SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
    Day 1 Outlook Image
    Day 1 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1102 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
    Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
    Severe thunderstorms are not expected after sunrise.
    ...Gulf States...
    Mid-level height falls will strengthen across the southern Plains
    during the latter half of the period ahead of a notable short-wave
    trough that should advance into OK/north TX during the overnight
    hours. As a result, meaningful large-scale ascent will remain
    focused well north of the surface front which should surge of the TX
    Coast early in the period. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates
    will remain conducive for elevated convection ahead of the short
    wave. There is some concern that a few robust updrafts may be
    ongoing at the start of the period across south-central TX, in
    closer proximity to a bit more buoyancy; however, any hail
    production should remain mostly sub-severe. Downstream, weak
    low-level convergence along the southward-advancing front will not
    be particularly advantageous for more than isolated lightning
    flashes within the strongest convection.
    ..Darrow.. 03/01/2021
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  2. SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
    Day 2 Outlook Image
    Day 2 Convective Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1115 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
    Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
    Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday.
    A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the southern Plains will
    pivot eastward toward the southern Appalachians by Wednesday
    morning. Moderate deep layer southwesterly flow will maintain a warm
    advection regime across the central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity. At
    the surface, a weak low is expected to develop east/northeast across
    the northern Gulf, just offshore from southeast LA and southern
    MS/AL before tracking across northern FL late in the period. A warm
    front will likely remain offshore, perhaps hugging coastal portions
    of the FL Panhandle, while a cold front sweeps east/southeast into
    across the western and central Gulf. Thunderstorms are expected near
    and north of the warm front, but this activity should largely remain
    elevated. Instability will be weak near the FL Panhandle and
    surface-based storm development appears unlikely, precluding severe
    probabilities at this time.
    ..Leitman.. 03/01/2021
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