Fire Danger

1. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
   

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021
   
   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level wave is forecast to strengthen off the CA/OR coast
   early this weekend. An associated upper-level jet will begin to nose
   into the Great Basin by Saturday afternoon, which should support a
   broad region of modest surface pressure falls across the
   inter-mountain West. As a result, increasing pressure-gradient winds
   across a region with dry fuels will lead to heightened fire weather
   concerns. 
   
   ...Great Basin and Southwest...
   Surface winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph across a broad
   swath from the southern Great Basin into portions of eastern NM.
   Limited moisture return in the wake of Friday's system will help
   relative humidity values remain in the 10-15% range across much of
   the region. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the approaching
   wave will generally remain on the southern periphery of the Great
   Basin from southern NV into northern AZ/southern UT. Forecast
   soundings suggest boundary-layer mixing may be sufficient to allow
   for wind gusts up to 35 mph across this region, though cloud cover
   could limit mixing potential and the coverage of stronger winds.
   Ensemble guidance supports this idea to some degree with pockets of
   higher probabilities for sustained 20+ mph winds within this
   corridor. This suggests that while areas of critical conditions are
   possible, widespread elevated conditions appear more likely at this
   time. Further to the east across NM, modest lee troughing and poor
   mid/upper-level wind support should yield only elevated conditions.
   
   ..Moore.. 04/23/2021
   
   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
   
   

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