Fire Danger

Storm Prediction Center
SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
  1. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
    Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0158 AM CDT Fri Apr 23 2021
    
    Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
    
    ...Synopsis...
    An upper-level wave is forecast to strengthen off the CA/OR coast
    early this weekend. An associated upper-level jet will begin to nose
    into the Great Basin by Saturday afternoon, which should support a
    broad region of modest surface pressure falls across the
    inter-mountain West. As a result, increasing pressure-gradient winds
    across a region with dry fuels will lead to heightened fire weather
    concerns. 
    
    ...Great Basin and Southwest...
    Surface winds are forecast to increase to 15-25 mph across a broad
    swath from the southern Great Basin into portions of eastern NM.
    Limited moisture return in the wake of Friday's system will help
    relative humidity values remain in the 10-15% range across much of
    the region. Enhanced mid-level flow associated with the approaching
    wave will generally remain on the southern periphery of the Great
    Basin from southern NV into northern AZ/southern UT. Forecast
    soundings suggest boundary-layer mixing may be sufficient to allow
    for wind gusts up to 35 mph across this region, though cloud cover
    could limit mixing potential and the coverage of stronger winds.
    Ensemble guidance supports this idea to some degree with pockets of
    higher probabilities for sustained 20+ mph winds within this
    corridor. This suggests that while areas of critical conditions are
    possible, widespread elevated conditions appear more likely at this
    time. Further to the east across NM, modest lee troughing and poor
    mid/upper-level wind support should yield only elevated conditions.
    
    ..Moore.. 04/23/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
    
    
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