Fire Danger

1. SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
   

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0126 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021
   
   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
   
   The previous forecast remains on track. Sustained winds between
   15-25 mph appear likely Sunday afternoon from central southern CA
   northward into western and northwestern portions of the Great Basin.
   Outside of a few locations in south-central CA, fuels remain too
   unreceptive for a robust fire weather threat per recent analyses.
   Forecast concerns regarding north-central Montana and the southern
   High Plains remain valid as outlined in the previous discussion
   below.
   
   ..Moore.. 10/16/2021
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021/
   
   ...Synopsis...
   The upper-level ridge will shift into the central U.S. on Sunday. An
   upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern
   California by the end of the period. At the surface, flow across the
   southern Plains will return to southerly along the western flank of
   surface high. A cyclone will develop within the lee of the Canadian
   Rockies and increase winds ahead of it and its attendant cold front
   extending into the western Great Basin.
   
   Dry and windy conditions are probable within western/central Nevada
   and perhaps into southeastern Oregon. Fuels are not currently
   critically dry across those areas. Some potential for locally
   elevated conditions will again exist in north-central Montana. RH is
   expected to be lower than on Saturday, but the surface pressure
   gradient will also be weaker. Finally, dry southerly winds from a
   continental airmass may support a marginal increase in fire danger
   in parts of the southern High Plains. With confidence in winds above
   15 mph remaining low as well as much of the area receiving recent
   rainfall, highlights will be withheld here also.
   
   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
   
   

   Read more